Credit Risk Management and the Financial Crisis - Are Credit Default
Swaps to Blame?
Credit default swaps (CDS) have been widely blamed
by politicians, regulators and the media for their role in the ongoing
crisis. What was their original purpose, and how have they contributed
to the turmoil in the economy?
A credit default swap is a credit derivative; this
is a financial instrument whose value depends on an underlying or
reference asset, such as a bond, bank loan, mortgage, etc. Credit
derivatives enable financial institutions to hedge the risk of losses
to their portfolios due to events such as bankruptcy or ratings
downgrades.
Credit default swaps were introduced by Wall Street
in the mid-1990s as a form of insurance against credit risk. A CDS
is an agreement between a protection buyer and a protection seller
in which the buyer makes a regular series of payments in exchange
for a settlement in the event of a credit loss by a reference asset.
Due to their flexibility, the popularity of credit
default swaps grew rapidly, giving rise to more complex variations.
One of these is the credit default swap index, in which the reference
asset is the average value of a set of bonds; these bonds can be
chosen from a specific sector of the economy, ratings class or country.
This product enables hedgers to buy protection from a broad range
of assets at a relatively low cost.
STRUCTURED PRODUCTS
The explosive growth of the CDS market, whose size
reached an estimated $60 trillion by 2007, inspired Wall Street
to produce progressively more sophisticated credit derivatives.
The most complex of these are known as structured credit products.
These are created when a financial institution acquires a pool of
risky assets and distributes the promised cash flows to investors
through a series of classes or tranches. The tranches are segregated
by credit risk, with the riskiest tranches offering the highest
potential rate of return. This type of structure increases the choices
available to investors, who can easily customize their exposure
to credit risk.
One of the most important structured credit products
is the Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). A CDO is typically
backed by extremely risky assets, such as sub-prime mortgages, low-rated
corporate bonds, even tranches of other CDOs. In order to increase
the attractiveness of a CDO, the issuer may sell protection to investors
through a CDS.
WHAT WENT WRONG?
In spite of the numerous benefits associated with
credit default swaps and other credit derivatives, they are extremely
risky products, both for buyers and sellers. Warren Buffet famously
compared derivative securities to weapons of mass destruction, due
to their potential for catastrophic losses. In the rush to earn
profits, many financial institutions overlooked the risk stemming
from their positions in credit derivatives. In particular, the CDS
market enabled firms to take huge speculative positions on credit
risk, since there are no legal requirements for protection sellers
to own the reference asset or hold capital as a cushion against
potential losses.
The tipping point came when the number of defaults
among sub-prime mortgages began to surge, triggering sizable credit
losses, especially among leveraged products such as CDOs. The inability
of protection sellers to cover their losses further magnified the
crisis; many investors who believed that they were insured against
credit losses saw the value of their holdings plunge. The crisis
saw the disappearance of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill
Lynch, while bond insurer AIG required a massive government bailout
to survive.
The fallout of the crisis has led to calls for
reform of the credit derivatives markets; some proposals have included
the creation of a clearinghouse, which would reduce counter-party
risk and increase the transparency of the market. Regardless of
the reforms that are enacted, CDS and other credit derivatives will
continue to be used by financial institutions as part of an overall
risk management strategy. There will be less use of CDS as speculative
instruments, as market participants have hopefully learned that
CDS can be powerful tools when used correctly, but can wreak havoc
when used for gambling purposes.
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